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RE: Free in Hot AC Top 40! (now Top 30)
I don't have a way to post a jpeg in here, but I just charted four recent AI singles in terms of airplay. What I learned was pretty interesting, and I have a feeling I can pretty much predict what will happen with Free, and when Oh My! will be released as a single.
(PS - if anyone knows how to post a jpeg on here, I'll happily show you the chart. Just tell me how!)
I took a look at "Better Than I Know Myself" and "Never Close Our Eyes" by Adam Lambert, "Vision of Love" by Kris Allen, and of course "Free." Some interesting notes:
1) BTIKM is the only song of the four that I was able to chart the entire rise and fall for, since the other three are still climbing. It had it's biggest weekly gains in Weeks 11-13, and reached its peak in Week 14. Three weeks later, his next single was released to the radio (Never Close Our Eyes).
2) Free actually had the best start of any of the singles (88 spins the first week as compared to 54, 40, and 40). Both of Adam's singles picked up plays at a faster clip than Haley's did after the first week, presumably because Hot AC was only one of the formats to which it was released.
3) BTIKM peaked with 1844 spins in its 14th week.
4) Free has had its biggest weekly gains so far in its 11th and 12th weeks.
So what do I see out of this? I think Free will probably gain spins for the next two weeks or so, topping out around 1000 spins. No, this isn't scientific, but if you could see the charts, you'd see that the trajectories of all four are pretty similar. Kris Allen's single is going into its 14th week, saw a profound slowdown in Week 13 (an increase of just 22 spins, down from 70, 70, and 40), and will likely peak this week. Never Close Our Eyes, now in its 9th week, has not seen gains like Adam's first single, but will likely continue to climb for another five weeks or so.
If I am correct about this, Haley will announce a new single (Oh My!) will be released in late July, or about three weeks after Free peaks. This makes some sense, since it will be played on The View. The Interscope Team probably understands this stuff better than we do, and knew that Free would still be climbing in early July.
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