Bob Lefsetz on the Future of the Biz

[john]

Some food for thought.

With terrestrial radio’s influence waning, what will take over as the surest way for a hit song to find an audience? Will it be satellite? Pandora? A handful of influential blogs? — Radio personality

The next big thing is the trusted filter, something that tells people what to listen to. Terrestrial radio sucks, Pandora gives too many tune-outs, and blogs are frequently untrustworthy. The filter won’t be algorithm-based; taste will be everything, a la the DJs of yore. More people will listen to more music, and the audience will build superstars.

What are the five mistakes a new act should avoid when starting out? — Unemployed marketing executive

1. Believing that publicity/marketing is more important than music.
2. Believing a record deal will solve all their problems and ensure success.
3. Believing that because their parents and friends like them, everybody else will.
4. Believing success usually happens overnight.
5. Believing anything that happened in the past still applies. MTV no longer plays music, the younger demo doesn’t care much about radio, albums are a historical format with little relevance in today’s marketplace, everything’s up for grabs, and you can have it your way. If you’re good, people will find you. If you get success quick, it probably won’t last.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/bo...ter-288217

[Miguel]

Bob Lefsetz commenting 5/30/11 (less than a week after American Idol concluded):

Virality

..."American Idol" and radio are positively old school. Dying art forms that still have some power but will mean ever less as the years go by.

Radio? You mean I have to sit there and listen and wait for my song to come on? When I’ve got an iPod and I can watch TV programs on demand on screens both big and small, even my iPad? Music radio is history. Talk radio will sustain. It unfolds in real time.

As for "American Idol"…who was the winner again? That show was about competition and advertising, music was featured, but stars are not being built because that’s no longer what a star is.

A star is not someone who is hyped by money into the hearts of America.

A star is someone who creates something by his or her wits that is so intriguing that it’s forwarded to millions.

Ponder that.

Don’t make a record to get a label deal. Don’t make a record to get on the radio. Make a record that makes those who listen to it want to tell everybody they know about it.

http://lefsetz.com/wordpress/index.php/a.../virality/

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[john]

[Bob Lefsetz]

Virality

..."American Idol" and radio are positively old school. Dying art forms that still have some power but will mean ever less as the years go by.

Following on the heels of the judging fiasco on AI last year, the debut of X Factor in the USA may end up being the bell-ringer for the top, with respect to AI type shows. And as much as people complain about back stories and the edits, note that AI had a show this week with no singing. I saw Nigel tweeted a defense of this approach in response to critical tweets. It seems that despite the complaints, there will be more emphasis on the back stories, the conflicts (e.g. the whole cowboy story line), and the rest of the drama this year, as opposed to the singing itself. Nigel and company might have concluded that the outrage about the treatment of Haley was good for ratings, so hey, why not bring in more controversy and drama. It will be interesting to see if they eventually jump the shark.

[buzzenator]

Following on the heels of the judging fiasco on AI last year, the debut of X Factor in the USA may end up being the bell-ringer for the top, with respect to AI type shows. And as much as people complain about back stories and the edits, note that AI had a show this week with no singing. I saw Nigel tweeted a defense of this approach in response to critical tweets. It seems that despite the complaints, there will be more emphasis on the back stories, the conflicts (e.g. the whole cowboy story line), and the rest of the drama this year, as opposed to the singing itself. Nigel and company might have concluded that the outrage about the treatment of Haley was good for ratings, so hey, why not bring in more controversy and drama. It will be interesting to see if they eventually jump the shark.

Exactly what was predicted last year on Idoloonies comment board, TPTB will do more manipulation and manufacturing in an attempt to increase ratings...the exact opposite of what fans were asking for, letting things play out on there own without the manipulation. Once people catch on that the fix is in, the show will tank even more.