Free in Hot AC Top 40! (now Top 30)

[Miguel]

USA Today, 'Idol' airplay...

June 18, 2012:

18 25 Haley Reinhart, Free (775) (#28 Hot AC)

....^ "Idols" rank.....................^ spins....^ chart position


May 07, 2012:

37 43 Haley Reinhart, Free (400) (#38 Hot AC)

[Flask Man]

Haley had a fantastic +12 spincrease today, thanks in large part to the incredible Minneapolis/St. Paul region! We should really refer to it as Haleyapolis at this point, because they're nearly spinning Free 100 times per week between the local HAC and AAA stations.

Also really upping the spins is in Burlington, VT and Las Vegas.

The key will be how Minneapolis spins Free after her show tomorrow. Portland all but dumped Free from its rotation after Haley performed there a couple weeks ago, and if Minneapolis does the same it'll really hurt her spin count. Hopefully, they're for real and not just giving spin service until her local show is over.

[Mr. Bill]

It's a slow build to say the least, but it's hard to deny that "Free" keeps building. The increase to 775 spins overall (that includes some Top 40, I guess) is an increase of 84 from last week, and last week was its biggest increase ever (95 spins). While the song still is unknown by the vast majority of Americans, it has done reasonably well for a first single by a new artist. Here is a week-by-week count of radio spins, the increase from the previous week, and the chart position for the song:

April 2 - 88
April 9 - 149 (+61)
April 16 - 209 (+60)
April 23 - 298 (+89)
April 30 - 312 (40 HAC) (+14)
May 7 - 400 (38 HAC) (+88)
May 14 - 431 (34 HAC) (+31)
May 21 - 497 (33 HAC) (+66)
May 28 - 531 (31 HAC) (+34)
June 4 - 596 (29 HAC) (+65)
June 11 - 691 (27 HAC) (+95)
June 18 - 775 (28 HAC) (+84)

[Flask Man]

It's a slow build to say the least, but it's hard to deny that "Free" keeps building. The increase to 775 spins overall (that includes some Top 40, I guess) is an increase of 84 from last week, and last week was its biggest increase ever (95 spins). While the song still is unknown by the vast majority of Americans, it has done reasonably well for a first single by a new artist. Here is a week-by-week count of radio spins, the increase from the previous week, and the chart position for the song:

April 2 - 88
April 9 - 149 (+61)
April 16 - 209 (+60)
April 23 - 298 (+89)
April 30 - 312 (40 HAC) (+14)
May 7 - 400 (38 HAC) (+88)
May 14 - 431 (34 HAC) (+31)
May 21 - 497 (33 HAC) (+66)
May 28 - 531 (31 HAC) (+34)
June 4 - 596 (29 HAC) (+65)
June 11 - 691 (27 HAC) (+95)
June 18 - 775 (28 HAC) (+84)

Where did you get this report?

[Mr. Bill]

I've been keeping track of the Idol Chatter reports every Monday. Because I'm weird.

[reyndevil]

I've been keeping track of the Idol Chatter reports every Monday. Because I'm weird.

love it

[LovinDaHaley]

^^ I love that you did all the work and shared it. And I don't think you're wierd, I track purple dragons:

[buzzenator]

Haley had a fantastic +12 spincrease today, thanks in large part to the incredible Minneapolis/St. Paul region! We should really refer to it as Haleyapolis at this point, because they're nearly spinning Free 100 times per week between the local HAC and AAA stations.

Also really upping the spins is in Burlington, VT and Las Vegas.

The key will be how Minneapolis spins Free after her show tomorrow. Portland all but dumped Free from its rotation after Haley performed there a couple weeks ago, and if Minneapolis does the same it'll really hurt her spin count. Hopefully, they're for real and not just giving spin service until her local show is over.

It started with Buzz filming Haley at MOA on May 27th...now look what has happened here in the Twin Cities and across the country. I would like to take most of the credit, it can't be just a coincidence that Free's spins increased 46% since 5/28? Here in the Twin Cities...we have great taste in music!

[Mr. Bill]

I don't have a way to post a jpeg in here, but I just charted four recent AI singles in terms of airplay. What I learned was pretty interesting, and I have a feeling I can pretty much predict what will happen with Free, and when Oh My! will be released as a single.

(PS - if anyone knows how to post a jpeg on here, I'll happily show you the chart. Just tell me how!)

I took a look at "Better Than I Know Myself" and "Never Close Our Eyes" by Adam Lambert, "Vision of Love" by Kris Allen, and of course "Free." Some interesting notes:

1) BTIKM is the only song of the four that I was able to chart the entire rise and fall for, since the other three are still climbing. It had it's biggest weekly gains in Weeks 11-13, and reached its peak in Week 14. Three weeks later, his next single was released to the radio (Never Close Our Eyes).

2) Free actually had the best start of any of the singles (88 spins the first week as compared to 54, 40, and 40). Both of Adam's singles picked up plays at a faster clip than Haley's did after the first week, presumably because Hot AC was only one of the formats to which it was released.

3) BTIKM peaked with 1844 spins in its 14th week.

4) Free has had its biggest weekly gains so far in its 11th and 12th weeks.

So what do I see out of this? I think Free will probably gain spins for the next two weeks or so, topping out around 1000 spins. No, this isn't scientific, but if you could see the charts, you'd see that the trajectories of all four are pretty similar. Kris Allen's single is going into its 14th week, saw a profound slowdown in Week 13 (an increase of just 22 spins, down from 70, 70, and 40), and will likely peak this week. Never Close Our Eyes, now in its 9th week, has not seen gains like Adam's first single, but will likely continue to climb for another five weeks or so.

If I am correct about this, Haley will announce a new single (Oh My!) will be released in late July, or about three weeks after Free peaks. This makes some sense, since it will be played on The View. The Interscope Team probably understands this stuff better than we do, and knew that Free would still be climbing in early July.

[Tusk]

(PS - if anyone knows how to post a jpeg on here, I'll happily show you the chart. Just tell me how!)

I upload my pics by signing up for a new account at photobucket, and uploading the jpg to the site. Then copy the url with the "[ img ]" tags around them, then paste in here. Reply to my post to see what it might look like :